Are Defenses Getting Better or Strikers Worse?

It’s the kind of debate that rages in football pubs, podcasts, and panel shows alike: when a match ends in a goalless draw or a tournament features fewer goals than expected, we naturally ask , are defenses getting better, or are strikers simply getting worse?

It’s not just a hypothetical argument anymore. We’re seeing real, measurable changes in how games are played, how goals are scored, and how difficult it’s become to break down compact, well-drilled defenses. At the same time, we’re also witnessing missed opportunities, lack of clinical edge, and forwards who sometimes look overwhelmed in front of goal. So, which side of the pitch is truly evolving?

Defensive Structures Have Evolved Drastically

If there’s one area in football that has clearly benefited from tactical sophistication and data-driven coaching, it’s defense. Gone are the days of basic man-marking and reactive clearances. Defenses now function as cohesive units, trained to control space, manage transitions, and neutralize attacking threats long before they reach the penalty area.

Coaches such as Diego Simeone, Thomas Tuchel, and Mikel Arteta have mastered the art of building compact, shape-shifting defensive blocks. From zonal pressing systems to back-three setups that morph into back-fives when out of possession, teams have found increasingly effective ways to close gaps. Even fullbacks and wingers are drilled to contribute defensively, swarming any player that dares try to dribble through the middle.

It’s not just elite teams either. Clubs lower down the table now employ advanced defensive models inspired by analytics and video scouting. Teams can mimic high-pressing triggers or sit deep in a 4-4-2 low block with minimal margin for error. Forwards now find themselves running into brick walls of positional awareness and tactical discipline.

Tactical Flexibility and the Death of Predictability

Modern football isn’t about one-dimensional setups anymore. Managers train their squads to switch formations mid-game , even mid-attack. This fluidity confounds opposition strikers. Defenders are taught to track runs not just spatially, but based on opponent tendencies derived from countless hours of film.

The use of the double pivot in midfield, popular in the 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 setups, also means there’s more shielding in front of backlines. Many attacking players now face five or six defenders at once, often forcing them to shoot from distance or thread throughballs into congested lanes.

Another significant development is the rise of tactical fouling , a deliberate, often subtle disruption of play when counterattacks begin. Pep Guardiola’s teams are well-known for this, using a foul just past the halfway line to prevent overloads. While not always pretty, it’s ruthlessly effective at stifling breakaways before they become scoring chances.

The Press: A Striker’s Worst Nightmare

The pressing revolution, particularly popularized by Jürgen Klopp’s gegenpressing style, has added another layer of difficulty for attacking players. It’s not just about physicality; it’s about cutting off supply lines, forcing defenders and midfielders to make hurried decisions, and trapping forwards into isolated duels.

Strikers, once known for hanging on the shoulder of the last defender and waiting for a long ball, are now expected to contribute to buildup, press the opposition, and drop deep , all while trying to maintain energy to finish chances. The toll this takes over 90 minutes cannot be understated.

As a result, many modern forwards have evolved into facilitators more than finishers. The classic poacher , the fox in the box , is becoming rarer, replaced by more all-rounded attackers like Harry Kane, Karim Benzema, and Antoine Griezmann, who often double as playmakers.

Are Strikers Actually Declining in Quality?

Despite the improvements in defensive organization, the question still lingers: are today’s strikers simply not as good at finishing?

Some would argue yes. Looking back at the last two decades, we had a generation of prolific scorers who could change the outcome of a match with a single touch. Think of Ronaldo Nazário, Thierry Henry, Ruud van Nistelrooy, or Samuel Eto’o. Their efficiency in front of goal and ability to beat defenders one-on-one was almost unmatched.

While players like Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé have proven themselves elite scorers, the pool of top-tier finishers appears smaller. The gap between the best and the rest is wider than ever. Many strikers in top leagues now struggle to convert more than 15% of their chances. Decision-making in the box, once instinctual and clinical, now often seems hurried or misjudged.

Some of that may come down to training. In an era where youth academies focus heavily on tactical versatility and pressing responsibilities, young attackers may not be getting enough finishing-specific training. The flair of an old-school number nine is harder to find when players are conditioned to be cogs in a larger machine.

The Role of Analytics in Player Behavior

Modern football’s data revolution is also influencing how players behave , and that includes strikers. Analytics departments now advise forwards on shot selection, xG (expected goals), positioning, and risk aversion. In theory, this should make them more efficient, but sometimes it removes the instinct from their game.

Players may avoid taking speculative shots in favor of waiting for the “high-percentage” opportunity. But in doing so, they occasionally let golden moments pass them by. Analysts might prefer a striker to cut back rather than fire at a tight angle, but that hesitation can give defenders precious milliseconds to regroup.

Defenders are also benefiting from these same insights. They study opponents’ tendencies, favored foot, dribbling patterns, and even emotional reactions. This makes it far more difficult for attackers to catch defenders off guard , because the element of surprise is often neutralized before the match even kicks off.

The Impact of VAR on Finishing Psychology

There’s also a psychological element to consider. With the introduction of VAR, strikers must constantly be aware of offside lines, handball interpretations, and any micro-infraction that could nullify a goal. This has subtly changed how many of them approach finishes.

In the past, forwards were encouraged to gamble, to toe the line and make the run anyway. Now, many hesitate , just slightly , for fear of being offside. That delay can be the difference between rounding the keeper or being caught. Goals that would have stood a decade ago are now frequently ruled out due to marginal offsides detected by freeze-frame technology.

This scrutiny adds pressure. A striker might subconsciously second-guess their run, timing, or finish. That hesitation can manifest as a miss, or worse, a complete breakdown in a promising attacking move.

Changing Expectations of Forward Players

Strikers are no longer just tasked with scoring goals. Modern systems often use them to hold up play, stretch the defense, and facilitate combinations between midfield runners. As such, the pure goalscorer role has shifted , or in some cases, faded entirely.

Roberto Firmino epitomized this for Liverpool , a forward who was valued more for his pressing, movement, and link-up play than for traditional goal metrics. Gabriel Jesus plays a similar role for Arsenal. While neither may score 30 goals a season, their contributions to team structure are immense.

However, this shift in expectations can sometimes blur the evaluation of a striker’s effectiveness. If a forward is doing everything right tactically but failing to score consistently, are they performing their role well, or not? It depends on what the coach prioritizes , structure over scoring, or both.

Are Defenses Just Outpacing Attack?

It’s also possible that the pendulum of innovation has simply swung in favor of defenses. The 2010s saw attacking systems flourish , from Pep’s tiki-taka to Klopp’s vertical pressing, from Pochettino’s high lines to Sarri-ball. Defenses needed to evolve quickly to avoid being dismantled.

Now that they have, attackers are facing more organized, positionally intelligent, and physically fit opposition than ever before. Reverting to older methods of attack , like long balls and crosses , often doesn’t work. But newer attacking ideas haven’t yet evolved fast enough to overcome modern defenses consistently.

That’s why goals are increasingly reliant on set pieces, rebounds, or individual brilliance. Collective attacking play, while beautiful to watch when it works, is harder to execute than structured defending. And when one mistake can lead to a goal conceded, many teams prioritize safety over risk.

The Future of Scoring in Football

To tip the balance again, attacking football needs innovation. This may come through new formations , like 3-2-2-3 or inverted fullbacks , or through player development that refocuses on finishing and composure in front of goal.

We might also see more dual-striker systems return, where one forward drops while the other stays on the last line. Or perhaps creative midfielders will once again be given more license to drift into the box, taking some of the pressure off the lone striker.

One thing is certain: football evolves in cycles. For every era of defensive dominance, there comes a renaissance of free-flowing attack. Whether through player ingenuity, coaching evolution, or simply a new breed of striker, the goals will return.

Conclusion

So, are defenses getting better or are strikers getting worse? The truth likely lies somewhere in between. Defenses have undoubtedly become more tactically astute, more organized, and more data-savvy than ever before. But at the same time, many modern strikers face challenges their predecessors didn’t , tactical burden, psychological pressure, and expectations to do everything besides just scoring.

In this current era of football, defenders are winning more battles , but not because attackers have gotten worse. Rather, the game has changed, and the tools used to measure a forward’s success need to change too. When the next generation of attackers comes through , sharper, smarter, and supported by new tactical ideas , we may once again see the balance shift back toward the strikers.